1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Villa vs Liverpool (LOST)

Walton, 6/15. Something about this one doesn't smell right, but the criteria seem to fit. [38%+]

2pts Chelsea (-2.0) 2.11 vs Watford (WON)

[54.5%]

3pts Man Utd (-1.75) 2.07 vs Leeds (LOST)

You only need to ask yourself what price Utd ought to be at home to Portsmouth in order to see that this is nonsense. I'm hoping the Newmanator will agree with this assessment. [59%]

(Even accounting for rested players for Wednesday's Carling Cup affair)

2pts Sunderland (-2.0) 2.06 vs Barrow (WON)

[55.5%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Stoke vs Birmingham (LOST)

Atkinson, 9/21. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Everton vs Burnley (LOST)

Webb, 8/15. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Newcastle vs Derby (LOST)

Wright, 6/14. Coral were very late going up with this one. [38%+]

I'm also interested in Scunthorpe at home to West Brom. I'm trying to get some 4/1 on Betfair to make it worth having a bet. Again, it's another example of me trying to back a shit team against a very good one, but Scunthorpe have beaten the likes of Newcastle, Sheff Utd AND Chesterfield at their gaff this season. [23%]

0.75pts Crystal Palace 7/2 at Swansea (LOST)

Can't really have Palace, but the 7/2 is a smidgeon too big. [24.5%]

0.5pts Derby 8/1 at Newcastle (LOST)

Very speculative, but since Skybet eased the Rams this afternoon the 8/1 is just too tempting. I have adjusted my thoughts since Derby's pathetic showing today, and I still make it a small bet. And, I am fully aware that Derby are dog-dirt this year. [12.5%]

Merry Christmas to everyone who's been doing their bollocks following The Billy Bunter!

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Sunderland vs Everton (WON)

Atkinson, 8/20. [38%+]

1pt Sheff Utd 12/5 at Leicester (LOST)

[33%]

0.75pts Sheff Weds 9/2 vs Newcastle (LOST)

[23%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 2/1, Newcastle vs Middlesboro (WON)

This may seem like madness, but the stats seem to point to a magic middle for this one. 6/14 of the most recent league meetings between these two have made up in the middle, and Kevin Friend is on an 8/15 streak. To be honest, after yesterday I am getting a bit fed up with this magic middle shit, but must plod on. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Forest vs Preston (LOST)

Graham, 5/11 (good old Grazie). [38%+]

Nothing in the Championship this weekend, you'll all be pleased to hear...

0.5pts 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Arsenal vs Hull (LOST)

I'm close to swerving this one, but have gone for a half stakes approach instead. The bookings price wouldn't want to be much lower. Bennett, 7/13. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Fulham vs Man Utd (LOST)

Webb, 8/14. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Blackburn vs Tottenham (LOST)

Walton, 7/13. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Aston Villa vs Stoke (LOST)

Probert, 6/13 [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Birmingham vs Blackburn (WON)

Jones, 7/14. [38+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Man Utd vs Wolves (LOST)

Bennett, 7/12: although most of this was earlier in the season and he is starting to show signs of reverting to the Steve Bennett of old, AKA 'Balloon-head' ('But at least you know what you're getting with Bennett', etc). [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Sunderland vs Villa (LOST)

Friend, 8/14. [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Sunderland v Portsmouth (LOST)

Bennett, 7/11. [38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Man Utd v Villa (LOST)

Atkinson, 7/18. [38%]

0.75pts Scunthorpe 5.3 at Reading (LOST)

[23%]

0.75pts Cardiff 11/4 at Middlesboro (WON)

Five 'bets' this weekend in the Championship, none of which I am getting too excited about as they're all somewhat speculative. The four aways are all playing teams in a poor-ish run of form, which as well as the long-term making them value has persuaded me to have a little interest on each. No big stakes this week; or rather 'No Heroes' as we used to say. [30%]

0.75pts Peterboro 3/1 at Coventry (LOST)

[29%]

0.5pts Sheff Weds 4/1 at Leicester (LOST)

[22%]

0.5pts Barnsley 4.5 vs Newcastle (LOST)

[26%]

0.75pts Scunthorpe 4/1 at Barnsley (LOST)

No less than four bets to be had in the mid-week Championship, which either means that I have completely gone at the game or that Skybet et al are being very generous. Unfortunately, I know which one of these is the jolly. [24%]

1pt Cardiff 9/2 at West Brom (WON)

[23%]

0.5pts Plymouth 5/1 at Swansea (LOST)

[18.5%]

1pt Bristol City 4.5 at Leicester (WON)

[26%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Wigan v Birmingham (LOST)

Probert, 6/11 [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, Arsenal v Stoke (LOST)

Clattenburg, 6/15 [38%+]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 7/4, West Ham v Man Utd (LOST)

Walton, 6/11. [38%+]

0.5pts Plymouth 3.45 vs Sheff Utd (LOST)

[33%]

0.5pts Preston 5.3 at Cardiff (LOST)

Yes, I know it's Preston again. [22%]

1pt Nottm Forest 2.48 vs Leicester (WON)

The money has just disappeared off Betfair, but if you can get 2.48 or better I think the Trees are a bet. [45.5%]

0.75pts Bookings Points 25-45 7/4, Blackpool v Preston (WON)

Forget about the fire-bombed pubs and all the other stories Newman tells us about this fixture. It's one for the fans, not the players (according to Ian Holloway). Kevin Friend is on 6/12 this season. [38%] PS: Get your rub-downs ready for when this makes up 145.

0.75pts Bookings Points 25-45 7/4, Man City v Hull (WON)

Probert, 5/10. [38%]

0.75pts Bookings Points 25-45 7/4, Fulham v Bolton (LOST)

Bennett, 6/10. [38%]

0.75pts Bookings Points 25-45 7/4, Blackburn v Stoke (WON)

I've found three this weekend which might well be worth punting at 7/4. I'm still going to say they're a 38% chance each, because that's what the spreadsheet spits out. However, Webb has made up inside the middle 7/10 times this season. [38%]

1pt Sheff Weds 11/4 vs WBA (LOST)

*** Please note recent run on the Championship is utterly dreadful - I expect regular readers to be adopting the 'acknowledge and disregard' approach to these 'tips' *** [31.5%]

0.5pts Preston 13/5 at Blackpool (LOST)

*** Please note recent run on the Championship is utterly dreadful - I expect regular readers to be adopting the 'acknowledge and disregard' approach to these 'tips' *** [30.5%]

0.5pts Ipswich 4/1 at Cardiff (WON)

*** Please note recent run on the Championship is utterly dreadful - I expect regular readers to be adopting the 'acknowledge and disregard' approach to these 'tips' *** [22%]

William Hill have shut the door on bookings middles. Now I'll be in a mess...

A few losing bets for you all below. The shrewdies amongst you might want to wait until the bookings middles are posted before parting with any cash...

1pt Derby 5.9 at Swansea (LOST)

Can't have this price at all. And even I, yes even I(!) acknowledge Derby are shit this year. [22%]

0.75pts Preston 3.30 vs Newcastle (LOST)

[35%]

0.75pts Scunthorpe 4/1 at Watford (LOST)

[23%]

0.5pts Bristol City 5/1 at West Brom (LOST)

[19%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Southampton v Brighton (LOST)

[38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 2/1, Huddersfield v Wycombe (WON)

[38%]

0.5pts EW Deon Burton 1st G/S 9/2, Northwich v Charlton (LOST)

Win [20.5%], Place [47.5%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Wolves v Arsenal (LOST)

[38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Villa v Bolton (LOST)

[38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Spurs v Sunderland (WON)

[38%]

0.5pts Peterboro 15/2 at Newcastle (LOST)

[15.5%]

1pt Scunthorpe 5.4 at Blackpool (LOST)

[24%]

1.5pts Derby 11/8 vs Coventry (WON)

[47%]

In addition to these three bets, I've backed Sheff Weds @ 3.1 (Betfair) at home to QPR and Cardiff @ 21/10 away at Swansea. No Chopra for Cardiff is a bit of a worry, and Sheff Weds might still have a bit of last week's virus in the camp; these two factors have stopped me tipping them up, but I couldn't resist a little interest.

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Everton v Villa (LOST)

[38%]

I'm a bit late this week, sorry folks. Had 2,000 words to get in by this afternoon so haven't managed to get anything else done.

In case you're wondering why I always put 38% for the bookings middles, it's because that's what the bookings poisson program makes it. When you factor in the refs then the actual chance is greater than 38%, but it's hard to difficult to work out what the real % ought to be. So if I just put 38% then you know that's the absolute bare minimum chance.

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Bolton v Chelsea (WON)

[38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Burnley v Hull (LOST)

[38%]

0.25pts Plymouth 8.8 at Middlesboro (WON)

[14.5%]

1pt Nottm Forest 4.6 at Cardiff (LOST)

[25.5%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, West Ham v Arsenal (LOST)

I used to hate doing Steve Bennett games when he was a loon (yes, I know the old adage 'at least you know what you're getting with Bennett'), but I like him much better now that every game he does makes up 30 or 40. This one could go off, but is still worth an investment with William Hill. [38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 2/1, Birmingham v Sunderland (WON)

[38%].

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Tottenham v Stoke (WON)

[38%].

0.5pts Doncaster 13/2 at Newcastle (LOST)

Can't really be smelled but the price is too big. [16%]

1pt Peterboro 13/5 at Doncaster (LOST)

Dare I say, I quite like this one. Bugger! Bocked it... [30%]

0.25pts Swansea 6/1 at West Brom (WON)

I would no doubt be better off employing a monkey to stick a pin in the Ladbrokes Millionaire Coupon to choose my selections, but I shall crack on undeterred. This one is highly speculative. They won't win but the price is too big. [15.5%]

0.5pts 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Wigan v Man City (LOST)

Wiley not so prolofic last season, but 5 out of 9 have made up 30 this year. There is a certain degree of volatility to the make-ups, which is not something you'd really look for when playing middles, so it's just a half pointer. [38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Aston Villa v Chelsea (WON)

Bennett's games this season read 40,40,10,30,30,30,30. [38%]

0.5pts Derby 10/3 at Leicester (LOST)

[25%]

1pt Plymouth 4/1 at Blackpool (LOST)

[24%]

0.5pts Peterboro 4/1 at Bristol City (LOST)

[22%]

Thanks for the Stockport value Gratian. Nothing to report this week from my camp. If I spot anything I'll let you know.

Bettingzone have also spotted the Bignall value!

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Arsenal v Blackburn (LOST)

[38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Bolton v Tottenham (WON)

[38%]

0.5pts Bristol City 6/1 at Newcastle (LOST)

Juicy price. [18%]

1pt Ipswich 21/10 at Barnsley (LOST)

Last chance for these Suffolk jokers. [35.5%]

1.25pts 25-45 Bookings Points, Man City v West Ham (LOST)

I'm so pleased that William Hill is not blocked by the campus wifi network. [38%]

It's now 21:55 and the books have made up 20. Needless to say, I am not so impressed with the campus wifi's inablility to block William Hill. Ger-roans.

0.5pts QPR 9/2 at Newcastle (LOST)

I'm starting to think that maybe the relegated trio are heads and shoulders above the other teams in this division. However, if anyone can knock them off their perches it's the Super Hoops at a working man's price. [20%]

0.75pts Ipswich 5/1 at Sheff Utd (LOST)

The Blades had a little wobble at the weekend. Ipswich are still utter shit, but 5/1 is a big price. [20%]

13 minutes to go and here comes the inevitable Blades fightback...

Ah yes, me old mate the 90th minute groan. How are you Mr. Groan? Not seen you for a while. Thanks for coming along, you fucking twat.

1.5pts Bristol C 6/5 vs Blackpool (WON)

Blackpool on a fantastic run, but it ends at Ashton Gate. [49.5%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points, Ipswich v Newcastle (WON)

Ten more lashes for Mr. Horsey. [38%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, St.Mirren v Celtic (LOST)

Yes, I would appear to be 'flogging a dead horse'. [38%]

1pt Peterboro 29/10 at Blackpool (LOST)

Not much time for this malarkey at the moment, but I have had a look though all the weekend Championship at this looks a decent bet. [29.5%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, West Ham v Liverpool (LOST)

Marriner again. [38%]

1.25pts Leicester 9/4 at Watford (LOST)

I'm sure I'm going to regret this lot, but that's what the value detector came up with for the weekend. Our old mate from the north is also keen on Leicester, so I can't claim all the credit for that one. [35.5%]

0.5pts Coventry 4/1 at Preston (LOST)

[22%]

0.5pts Plymouth 9/1 at Newcastle (LOST)

[12.5%]

0.75pts QPR 18/5 at Cardiff (WON)

[25%]

0.5pts Scunthorpe 9/2 at Bristol City (LOST)

[20%]

"I seriously think you lot [Football Desk] need to go back to fookin' school."

The Creature, circa 2007

Well Creature, two years later and it's finally back to school for me. The wife has bought me some shiny pens, some pads of paper and some folders (no protractor set though!?), and has made me a nice packed lunch for my first day. Unfortunately, punting boots are not allowed in school so sadly I'll have a bit less time to bosh away, but I'll still be on here posting up the odd shit bet from time to time.

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 2/1, Fulham v Everton (LOST)

A decent price for a magic middle here. [38%]

Going to be looking out for a similar price in Sunday's Cardiff v Newcastle game.

1.25pts 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Man Utd v Spurs (LOST)

Marriner fairly reliable when it comes to these things. [38%]

0.5pt Plymouth 10.0 at West Brom (LOST)

Don't fancy this much, but Plymouth ought not to be such a big price away at the Baggies. [14%]

0.5pt Ipswich 5.8 at Middlesboro (LOST)

The long-term bets Ipswich lots shorter than you'd imagine for this game, but this has to be adjusted based on Roy Keane's patchy start to the season. His bunch of feckin eejits failed to beat a 10-man Preston at home last time out, so I'm not having the mortgage on this. There is some 5.8 available which I've dabbled in, and I wouldn't be surprised if they drift a bit more on the fair before kick-off. [20%]

Gratian, you got in there before me with the moan-up about Hereford spunking away their two-goal lead. I was on a train back from Chesterfield when I saw your comment about the bookings bet and couldn't manage to get the bet on using mobile internet. On the off-chance you read this before beddie-byes I have backed Nelson Haedo-Valdez 1st/last goalscorer at 5/1 in the Paraguay v Bolivia match...

A small interest in some half-time/full-time wagonry today for old times' sake. I've just had the four matches in doubles and trebles: Austria, Spain, Turkey, and of course England. Betfred seemed the place to go.

Hmmm, not impressed by William Hill going 7/4 the two bookings middles for tomorrow night's Championship games. Where's the 19/10 gone??? It's still value, but not enough to have a bet.

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 2/1, Villa v Fulham (WON)

Bennett let us down last week, and this is about as low as you'd want the bookings price to be in order to have a bet. However, it's 2/1 rather than the usual 19/10 and Bennett is historically the best in the business when it comes to magic middles. [37.5%]

1.25pts Ipswich 2.48 vs Preston (LOST)

Ipswich aren't really firing yet but they're perhaps worth backing against a Preston side who traditionally don't travel well. [45.5%]

0.5pt Celtic 9/1 at Arsenal (LOST)

A bit waggonish I suspect, but the price just looks a bit too big to pass it by. [11.5%]

1pt Bristol City 3.6 vs Middlesbro (WON)

Another one that can't particularly be smelled, but value is value...[33%]

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Cardiff v Bristol C (WON)

Yawn...this is getting a bit predictable but here is another 'value' bookings middle. [38%]

1.5pts 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Fulham v Chelsea (LOST)

Andre Marriner is even kinder to the middle band than Steve Tanner - 47% of his games would have been winners over the past year. [38%]

I'll be looking out for a price in the Arsenal v Pompey game. This will be the king of bonkos if Hillbilly's go up with the usual 19/10 judging by Steve Bennett's discipline card distributions of late.

1.5pts 25-45 Bookings Points 2/1, WBA v Ipswich (LOST)

Big price about the middle here. 42% of Steve Tanner's games have made up in the middle over the past season. [38%]

Thanks again Gratian. I've backed the five selections with the Patrick Newman "Seal of Approval", plus Doncaster at the 13/2. I'll be looking out for a few bookings middles once Hills go up with their weekend games, but apart from that I haven't spotted any other bets on the weekend stuff (not getting as much time as I might like to scour through all the prices - can't imagine this will improve when I have to commute to Exeter every day either. Groans) Best of luck me old mate...

Thanks Gratian for your words of encouragement, and thanks Samwell for this evening's bets...

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Celtic v Arsenal (WON)

The last one of these made up 95. A 30 or 40 would be nice this time. [38%]

I've had an early look at the weekend Championship, but everything's in line and there's no bets to be had yet.

1pt 25-45 Bookings Points 19/10, Dundee Utd v Hearts (LOST)

William Hill is the place to go. [38%]

0.75pt Sheff Weds 9/2 at Newcastle (LOST)

Not surprisingly I can't really smell this one, but according to Sporting's long term the Owls ought to be even shorter than I make them. The amount of value in this one really hinges on the weight of this neg everyone seems to have for the Toon, so there is an element of the unknown at this stage. [20.5%]

1pt Derby 3.0 at Scunthorpe (LOST)

In keeping with last season, Derby are on the drift as the match approaches. I've already backed them at 2.9 on Betfair, so the 3.0 available at the moment looks lovely. [39%]

1pt Nottm Forest 2/1 vs West Brom (LOST)

Yes, at the risk of getting repetitive it would appear Forest are a bet again this week. If the long term betting is anything like correct then, at worst, this can only be a choice game. It's still early so we can't be too sure exactly how tricky the Trees are going to be this season, but they're definitely worth an investment. At this rate they could be this year's Derby County. [37%]

I've had it rightly pointed out by Knowlesy that taking the 2/1 is better than paying 5% on the 21/10 on Betfair. That's why the price has changed above. Such an elementary error....

This doesn't bode well. It looks like I'm losing it already - 7/2 is available now...

1pt Nottm Forest 10/3 at Reading (LOST)

It's perhaps a bit early this one as they don't kick off until 8th August, but there's nothing like a good 10/3 shot to get the season going. [27%]