I'm a bit late this week, sorry folks. Had 2,000 words to get in by this afternoon so haven't managed to get anything else done.

In case you're wondering why I always put 38% for the bookings middles, it's because that's what the bookings poisson program makes it. When you factor in the refs then the actual chance is greater than 38%, but it's hard to difficult to work out what the real % ought to be. So if I just put 38% then you know that's the absolute bare minimum chance.